Rozite, Kristine and Ievina, Inguna and Melnikova, Jekaterina (2007) Elaboration od dynamic optimization model for long term labour market forecasts in Latvia. In: 4th International Conference "Global Challenges for Competitiveness: Business and Government Perspective", 27-29. 9. 2007., Pula, Croatia.
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In the context of continuous growth of Latvia’s economy in the recent years and the decrease of population caused not only by the demographic situation but also by the emigration of the people after joining the EU, Latvia’s governmental institutions meet the problem of lack of an employment forecasting system to estimate the further labour market development in interconnectedness with the national economy development. By participating in the project “Research of the Ministry of Welfare” in Latvia, the main purpose of which was investigation in the long term forecasting system of the labour market demand and the analysis of its improvement possibilities, a complex forecasting system was developed. The system includes an adapted Swedish labour market econometric model for short and middle term forecasts and by paper authors developed originally system_dynamics model for long term prediction. The paper describes the development methodology for long term labour market dynamic optimization model (DOM) and the main results achieved by applying the DOM. The objective of DOM is to predict labour market supply and demand development under a different demographic situation and economic growth scenarios. The supply side of the labour market is determined by economically active population, and it has a tendency to diminish due to the demographic situation and negative net migration in Latvia. The development of labour market demand side during the economic transition period was affected by the economic restructuring. Now the positive growth of the national economy requires more and more skilled workforce. At the same time the question whether the current skills in the labour market can match the long term economy needs remains unanswered. The developed DOM will help the governmental institutions take decisions according to the education and employment policies.
| Tip objekta: | Materijal konferencije ili radionice (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Mentor: | NIJE ODREĐENO |
| Dodatne informacije: | 4/2007 |
| Ključni pojmovi: | Labour Supply and Demand, Labour Market Balancing, Systemdynamic, Dynamic Optimization Model, Long Term Forecasts, ponuda i potražnja rada, balasiranje tržišta rada, dinamički model optimizacije, dugoročna predviđanja. |
| Teme: | 3 Društvene znanosti > 33 Ekonomija. Ekonomska znanost > 331 Rad. Zaposlenost. Poslodavci, zaposleni. Ekonomika rada. Organizacija rada. |
| Odjeli: | Odjel za ekonomiju i turizam "Dr. Mijo Mirković" |
| Datum pohrane: | 17 Oct 2012 11:37 |
| Zadnja promjena: | 08 Jan 2013 07:42 |
| URI: | http://eknjiznica.unipu.hr/id/eprint/1586 |
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