Šergo, Zdravko and Poropat, Amorino and Gržinić, Jasmina (2010) Tourism demand and garch models for Croatia. In: Biennal International Tourism & Hospitality Industry 2010 : New Trends in Tourism and Hospitality Management.
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In this paper, we study the behaviour of tourism demand for Croatia over the period of January 1990–August 2009 from a different perspective, in that we examine: whether there is a common structural break in the growth level of the time series of tourism demand. This paper empirically investigates some basic cyclic features, such as volatility in the growth level of tourism arrivals and overnight stays in Croatia. The data set comprises monthly figures for Croatia: overnight stays as well as tourist arrivals, from January 1990 - August 2009. They associated volatilities for monthly tourism data are estimated for the total tourism demand: using univariate SARIMA and volatility models for the data series. The univariate estimates suggest that the GARCH (1, 1) model provides an accurate measure of conditional volatility in monthly tourist arrivals and overnight stays in the observed time span.
| Tip objekta: | Materijal konferencije ili radionice (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Mentor: | NIJE ODREĐENO |
| Ključni pojmovi: | tourism demand, structural breaks, volatility, seasonality, SARIMA, GARCH |
| Teme: | 3 Društvene znanosti > 33 Ekonomija. Ekonomska znanost > 338 Gospodarsko stanje. Gospodarska politika. Upravljanje gospodarstvom. Gospodarsko planiranje. Proizvodnja. Usluge. Cijene > 338.4 Proizvodnja i usluge prema gospodarskim sektorima > 338.48 Turistički promet s gospodarskog gledišta. Politika turističkog gospodarstva |
| Odjeli: | Fakultet ekonomije i turizma "Dr. Mijo Mirković" |
| Datum pohrane: | 07 Jan 2014 08:50 |
| Zadnja promjena: | 07 Jan 2014 08:50 |
| URI: | http://eknjiznica.unipu.hr/id/eprint/2959 |
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