E-Knjižnica FET "Dr. Mijo Mirković"

Empirical estimation of triple gap relationship in Croatia

Tomić, Daniel (2013) Empirical estimation of triple gap relationship in Croatia. In: Knowledge and business challenge of globalisation in 2013. Fakulteta za komercialne in poslovne vede, Celje, pp. 501-510. ISBN 978-961-6825-83-2

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How to stabilise the macro economy through active national – international economic policy is relevant question for macroeconomic management. Economic structures reflected by the differences in budget, trade and savings relations often reveal sources of economic inefficiencies in the system. The aim of this paper is to extend twin deficit hypothesis towards triple gap concept in order to analyse fundamental disequilibrium of the Croatian economy. By relating external deficit with differences between national investment - national savings and budget revenues - expenditures we are in fact addressing important policy implications concerning long-run capability and viability of economic progress in Croatia. Relevance of external trade position should be a cause of concern for economic policy makers in Croatia, especially now in the course of economic crisis when net export is expected to become a new driver of new economic growth. Why? Limitations of monetary policy and de facto ambiguous reach of fiscal policy (EU as well as international organizations such as IMF are constantly pressuring fiscal austerity) suggest that Croatia is on the verge of crossing the line and falling into the economic abyss. In this sense, ‘triple gaps’ could be taken as guidelines for comprehensive set of policy measures pointed towards encouraging growth and remedying structural imbalances. In order to bypass theoretical limitations within national income accounting identity, gaps are calculated as ratios, rather than differences between two values. Empirical estimation relies on bounds-testing approach to cointegration (ARDL) and error-correction modelling and can be used solely as an indicator for further research.

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Tip objekta: Dio knjige
Ključni pojmovi: macroeconomic management, triple gap analysis, trade deficit developments, ARDL modelling, Croatia
Teme: 3 Društvene znanosti > 33 Ekonomija. Ekonomska znanost > 330 Ekonomija općenito > 330.1 Ekonomska znanost. Osnovni ekonomski pojmovi, teorija. Vrijednost. Kapital. Fondovi > 330.101.541 Makroekonomija
Odjeli: Fakultet ekonomije i turizma "Dr. Mijo Mirković"
Datum pohrane: 20 Feb 2014 07:37
Zadnja promjena: 20 Feb 2014 07:37
URI: http://eknjiznica.unipu.hr/id/eprint/3279

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